The European Union is deliberating targeted sanctions against Israel due to its military operations in Gaza, as consensus among all 27 member states to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement remains elusive.
Seventeen EU countries, led by the Netherlands, have initiated a review of Israel's adherence to Article 2 of the agreement, which mandates respect for human rights and democratic principles as essential components of the accord.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, French President Emmanuel Macron
(Photo: Christophe Ena / POOL / AFP, Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
A full suspension of the agreement requires unanimous approval, a challenging prospect. However, the EU is exploring partial measures that necessitate only a qualified majority—15 member states representing at least 65% of the bloc’s population. Still, even that path remains uncertain, given the support Israel receives from countries like Germany and Italy.
Meanwhile, diplomats told The Guardian, as first reported by Ynet, that unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state by Western countries is unlikely at a planned international conference this month in New York.
The conference, organized by France and Saudi Arabia, aims to advance a two-state solution. According to the report, the event, which “supporters of Palestine had hoped would push western governments to recognise a Palestinian state” has “weakened its ambition and will instead hope to agree on steps towards recognition.”
French diplomats have conveyed to Israeli officials that despite Paris co-initiating the summit with Riyadh, it does not intend to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. The conference, set for June 17–20 at the United Nations headquarters, will be held under the auspices of UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
A joint statement is expected to be adopted without a vote, intended not as a binding decision but as a document articulating a shared vision, according to French diplomats who conveyed the message to Israeli officials, including Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.
Still, French officials did not rule out the possibility of recognition by other nations during or on the sidelines of the conference. They also did not exclude future recognition by France itself, prompting concern in Israel over potential diplomatic surprises. “There are messages going in every direction—that’s how it is with the French. It’s hard to predict where this is going,” an Israeli official told Ynet.
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The United Kingdom is reportedly pushing for language supporting recognition to be included in the conference document and is pressuring France on the matter. Both countries are permanent members of the UN Security Council, and recognition from either would carry significant weight.
British officials, frustrated by what they see as French indecision, are reportedly looking to “embarrass” Paris. Although French officials have said they do not plan a unilateral recognition at the summit, sources suggest that decision is not final. Israel remains wary of recognition efforts by other European nations, especially Malta, Portugal and possibly Belgium. The UK has also threatened, along with France and Canada, to impose sanctions on Israel if the fighting in Gaza continues.
Israeli officials have accused French President Emmanuel Macron of leading a “crusade against the Jewish state,” and suggest that France’s ambiguity stems in part from Israeli threats to annex parts of Area C in the West Bank and take punitive steps against Paris, including the closure of its Jerusalem consulate.
U.S. pressure may also be influencing the French stance. This week, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee criticized France, saying, “If France is really so determined to see a Palestinian state, I've got a suggestion for them: Carve out a piece of the French Riviera, and create a Palestinian state."
'Some in Europe find themselves on the wrong side of history'
Separately, a European Union-commissioned report examining potential human rights violations by Israel is expected to find that Israel has not met its obligations under the Association Agreement. European Council President António Costa told Politico on Friday that the report will likely conclude Israel is not in compliance.
“The situation in Gaza is of course completely unacceptable,” Costa said. He noted that the European External Action Service (EEAS) is currently reviewing whether Israel’s actions comply with international law. “But watching your televisions and reading your newspapers, I think it’s not difficult to anticipate what is the conclusion that they obtain,” he added—a comment that prompted an official rebuke from Israel.
The Foreign Ministry issued a sharp response Saturday to Costa's remarks. "Unbelievably, European Council President Costa exposed the truth behind the EU’s recent actions. the so-called 'review' of Israel’s compliance with the Association Agreement is a sham. The conclusions were written in advance," a statement read.
"In his own words, Costa admitted that it is a charade with predetermined results... The EU’s intention to base its review on Hamas propaganda—being spread in the media—is a farce. It is a blatant attempt to manipulate member states into turning against Israel and pressuring it during the most difficult war in its history, while fighting in a multi front war against those who are trying to eliminate it.
"Pressure should instead be applied on Hamas, which continues to reject the American proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal, thereby prolonging the war in Gaza.
"Israel is determined to achieve its objectives and will not surrender to pressure. Sadly, it appears that—between supporting Israel or the radical axis in the Middle East —some in Europe find themselves on the wrong side of history."
The review is being conducted under the terms of the association agreement, which designates respect for human rights and democratic principles as essential elements of EU-Israel cooperation. The process was initiated by a coalition of 17 EU member states, led by the Netherlands. The resulting report is expected to be presented at the EU foreign ministers’ meeting on June 23.
Four EU diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that a growing number of member states are pushing for concrete steps—possibly including reduced economic ties—if Israel is found to be in breach of the agreement. European sentiment toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has grown increasingly critical, with countries that previously offered Israel unconditional support, such as Germany, now voicing concern over the scale of destruction in Gaza and expanding settlement activity in the West Bank.
Suspending the agreement outright would require unanimous approval from all 27 EU members—a step likely to face resistance from Hungary and the Czech Republic, and potentially from Germany and Italy as well. However, partial measures requiring only a qualified majority remain under consideration.
“We need to take decisions by a majority, by qualified majority, or by unity,” Costa said of the Council’s deliberations process. “We should wait for the assessment and then discuss what kind of decision we want to take and what kind of majority we need to take the decision.”