If you’ve seen Tesla’s recent videos of its humanoid robot, Optimus, you might think the future has already arrived. In one clip, the robot is shown taking out the trash, cleaning counters and even cooking. In another, it dances with surprising agility. But while these videos generate excitement, they also highlight a truth: Robots like Optimus are still far from becoming a common presence in our streets or workplaces.
Tesla insists that Optimus was not remotely operated in these demonstrations, but they haven’t claimed the robot wasn’t preprogrammed to perform these tasks. The leap from preprogrammed actions to a fully autonomous robot that can adapt to its surroundings and engage in human conversation remains immense. And with every video Tesla releases, it feels like the finish line for this vision keeps moving further away.
Tesla initially announced ambitious production goals: 5,000 Optimus robots in 2023, scaling up to 50,000 in 2026 and 500,000 in 2027. But, as is often the case with Tesla, plans have shifted. For now, production is limited to a small batch of robots for internal use in Tesla factories, with commercial sales delayed until 2026.
The robotics race stalls
Tesla isn’t alone in its struggles. Industry competitors face similar challenges. Figure AI, backed by major investors like Microsoft, Nvidia and Jeff Bezos, and with a development center in Israel, once promised to produce 12,000 robots this year and 100,000 over four years. To date, not a single one of their robots has been spotted anywhere.
Norwegian company 1X, developer of the Neo bipedal robot, had ambitious plans to produce thousands of units by 2025 and millions by 2028. Yet progress has been slow. Similarly, Apptronik, partly funded by Google, has yet to bring any robots to market. Even Israel’s Mentee Robotics, which showcased its advanced Mentibot 3.0 earlier this year, has not yet delivered on its promise to launch commercially.
Additional Israeli companies are also working in the field. Unlimited Robotics, founded in 2016, focuses on modular service robots for the health care sector. Meanwhile, CaPow, established in 2018, has developed “Power-In-Motion” technology, which keeps humanoid robots moving without the need for charging stops—an innovation that could become as crucial as charging stations are for electric cars today.
While robot production lags, Nvidia has positioned itself as the go-to software platform for humanoid robot developers. The company’s Isaac GR00T Humanoid Open platform is enabling robotics companies to train their machines to better interact with the world. Companies like Mentee Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Foxconn, NEURA Robotics, and others are relying on Nvidia’s tools to push their robots closer to market readiness. But the question remains: when will consumers actually see these robots in their homes or workplaces?
A long road ahead
A new report by Bank of America (BofA) offers a sobering perspective on the robotics industry’s promises. According to their analysts, humanoid robots won’t transition from testing to widespread consumer use until the end of the decade, and their full integration into daily life could take several more decades.
The report estimates that 18,000 robots will be delivered globally in 2023, primarily for testing and experimental purposes. Between 2030 and 2035, annual shipments are projected to rise to between 1 million and 10 million units. By 2060, there could be as many as 3 billion robots in use worldwide. If these predictions hold true, robots could become more common than cars, with 0.3 robots per person compared to today’s 0.2 cars per person.
At that point, robots are expected to replace 20% of industrial workers and 50% of service workers. Each robot will, on average, replace 2.5 human workers in industrial roles and 1.5 workers in service roles. BofA predicts that the majority of robots—65%—will be used for services, 32% for domestic purposes, and only 3% for industrial applications.
How much will these robots cost? According to BofA, the manufacturing cost for a humanoid robot is currently around $35,000. However, by 2030–2035, production costs are expected to drop to $13,000–$17,000 per unit. Despite this, consumers will likely pay significantly more, with estimates suggesting prices could reach around $25,000 per robot.
What’s driving demand?
The rapid growth in robot shipments over the next decade will be fueled by two key factors: an aging global population and advancements in robotics technology. As the elderly population grows, demand for caregiving robots is expected to soar, especially given the shortage of human caregivers. Simultaneously, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, 3D imaging, and motion control will make robots more capable and affordable.
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Car manufacturers are also entering the robotics race. Chinese automaker Jaeco recently unveiled its humanoid robot, AiMOGA, at the Shanghai Auto Show. During the event, AiMOGA robots navigated the exhibition space, served drinks, and presented cars to visitors. This trend reflects the increasing overlap between the automotive and robotics industries.
Despite the excitement, significant obstacles remain. The engineering complexity and high production costs of humanoid robots are major hurdles. Scaling up the production of critical components is another challenge. Robotics companies also face difficulties in developing safe and reliable AI systems—a problem similar to what the autonomous vehicle industry is grappling with.
Other challenges include creating advanced motion control systems for precise movements, building vast datasets to train AI, and developing sophisticated sensors to help robots understand their environments. Regulatory issues, particularly around privacy and data security, add another layer of complexity.
The three stages of robot adoption
According to BofA, the integration of humanoid robots into society will unfold in three stages. The first stage, from 2025 to 2027, will focus on industrial and logistical applications. The second stage, from 2028 to 2034, will see robots enter commercial use in businesses and factories. The third stage, beginning in 2035, will bring humanoid robots into mainstream use in homes, kitchens, and eldercare facilities.
The dream of humanoid robots in everyday life remains tantalizingly out of reach. But as technology advances and companies refine their designs, that dream edges closer to becoming reality—one cautious step at a time.